Energy Policy, cilt.215, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)
This study investigates market reactions to conflicts within the energy sector, focusing on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Using a global sample of 1149 companies, we employ the event study methodology to analyze market responses across countries, categorized by market type (developed, emerging, and frontier) and energy resource. The findings reveal a significant positive market reaction following the announcement of the conflict, particularly in developed markets such as Germany, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Austria, and the United States, as well as in emerging markets including Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Thailand. Positive reactions are primarily driven by coal, oil and gas, and oil and gas-related equipment and services sectors. Additionally, the analysis highlights a significant country-level effect of military power. Stronger military capability is associated with more favorable abnormal returns, especially in fossil fuel–related industries and post-event windows, suggesting that investors perceive national defense strength as a stabilizing factor during geopolitical escalation. This research contributes to understandings of market dynamics in the energy sector by emphasizing the conditional role of military power in shaping investor perceptions during geopolitical conflicts.