Forecasting Local Mean Sea Level by Generalized Behavioral Learning Method


Ertugrul O. F. , TAĞLUK M. E.

ARABIAN JOURNAL FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, cilt.42, ss.3289-3298, 2017 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 42 Konu: 8
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s13369-017-2468-4
  • Dergi Adı: ARABIAN JOURNAL FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.3289-3298

Özet

Determining and forecasting the local mean sea level (MSL), which is a major indicator of global warming, is an essential issue to set public policies to save our future. Owing to its importance, MSL values are measured and shared periodically by many agencies. It is not easy to model or forecast MSL because it depends on many dynamic sources such as global warming, geophysical phenomena, and circulations in the ocean and atmosphere. Several of researchers applied and recommended employing artificial neural network (ANN) in the estimation of MSL. However, ANN does not take into account the order of samples, which may consist essential information. In this study, the generalized behavioral learning method (GBLM), which is based on behavioral learning theories, was employed in order to achieve higher accuracies by using samples in the training dataset and the order of samples. To evaluate and validate GBLM, MSL of seven stations around the world was picked up. These datasets were employed to forecast the local MSL for the future. Obtained results were compared with the ones obtained by ANN that is trained by extreme learning machine and the literature. The GBLM is found to be successful in terms of the achieved high accuracies and the ability to tracking trends and fluctuations of a local MSL.