Beyond Historical Catch: Developing a Climate-Adaptive Fisheries Allocation Framework for Transboundary Fish Stocks under International Law
Frontiers in Marine Science, cilt.13, ss.1-20, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 13
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.3389/fmars.2026.1942966
- Dergi Adı: Frontiers in Marine Science
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: EBSCO Legal Collection, Scopus, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-20
- İnönü Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Climate change is rapidly altering the geographical distribution of transboundary fish stocks, challenging the legal and institutional assumptions upon which international fisheries governance has traditionally been based. Existing allocation systems, largely founded on historical catch records and relatively stable stock distributions, are becoming increasingly inconsistent with ecological realities, generating disputes among coastal States and undermining the effectiveness of Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs). This article examines whether the existing framework of international fisheries law is capable of accommodating climate-driven redistributions of fish stocks and facilitating more adaptive allocation mechanisms. Employing a doctrinal legal methodology, supported by a comparative analysis of selected RFMO practices, the study analyses the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the 1995 United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement (UNFSA), relevant FAO instruments, and selected soft-law frameworks. It argues that the existing legal regime already contains sufficient normative foundations—including cooperation, sustainability, the precautionary principle, ecosystem-based management, equity, and climate justice—to support adaptive fisheries governance. However, institutional rigidity, consensus-based decision-making, and continued reliance on historical allocation principles significantly hinder effective adaptation. Drawing upon case studies including the Northeast Atlantic mackerel dispute, Pacific tuna governance, CCAMLR, and emerging Arctic fisheries governance, the article demonstrates the limitations of current allocation practices under changing climatic conditions. As its principal contribution, the article proposes a Climate-Adaptive Fisheries Allocation Framework (CAFAF), operationalised through a Climate-Adaptive Allocation Index (CAAI), which integrates contemporary stock distribution, historical participation, ecosystem sustainability, climate vulnerability, food security, and equitable allocation into fisheries decision-making. The proposed framework offers a legally grounded and institutionally feasible pathway for enhancing the resilience, legitimacy, and long-term sustainability of international fisheries governance in an era of accelerating climate change.