Does Social Globalization Drive Carbon Emissions, or Do Emissions Shape Social Globalization? Evidence from Türkiye
Sustainability, cilt.18, sa.19, ss.1-25, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 18 Sayı: 19
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.3390/su18199732
- Dergi Adı: Sustainability
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI)
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-25
- İnönü Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Understanding the environmental implications of social globalization has become increasingly important as countries pursue deeper global integration alongside low-carbon transition goals. This study examines the long-run relationship between social globalization and per capita CO2 emissions in Türkiye over the period 1970–2021. Renewable energy share, natural resource rents, and real GDP per capita are included in the model as control variables. The long-run relationship was examined using Fourier-based cointegration procedures, supplemented by conventional and structural-break robustness tests, while long-run coefficients were estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR. Predictive causality was assessed using Fourier Toda–Yamamoto procedures. The cointegration evidence is specification-sensitive: the standard Fourier–ADL test does not support cointegration, whereas the fractional-frequency Fourier–ADL, Engle–Granger, and Maki tests provide supporting evidence. Across FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimates, social globalization has a positive and statistically significant long-run coefficient (0.779, 1.634, and 0.790, respectively). Both Fourier causality procedures support predictive causality from CO2 emissions to social globalization, whereas the reverse direction is not supported. Accordingly, the positive long-run coefficient should not be interpreted as direct evidence of causality, but rather as indicating that the variables move together over the long run. These findings contribute to the globalization–environment literature by showing that a positive long-run relationship can coexist with causality running in the opposite direction and provides policy-relevant insights for Türkiye’s low-carbon transition.